Inflation for January 2012

Inflation fell to 3.6% in January, as forecasters predicted. Read more on the Financial Times. The ease in inflation may give signs that this 'stagflation' that the economy has been experiencing may be shifting away. The coming months will tell how unemployment will change in response (Phillips Curve). Inflation faces downward pressure from the effects of higher unemployment, slow exports markets (due to the Eurozone) and lower energy prices (causing a rise in imports).

A further £50bn Quantitative Easing that the MPC authorised earlier this month shows that there is still deficient demand in the economy and it may continue to stay low. Thus economists are predicting more QE to keep inflation from falling below the government's 2% target.

Recent inflation figures!

Once again, the new inflation figures have come out for November and the CPI has fallen 0.2% from the previous month. The RPI also fell from 5.4% to 5.2%.
Reasons for the slight fall in inflation include:

• Supermarket food prices (bread and vegetables) - price war
• Transport costs - fuel prices fell

However, the rate at which prices are rising is still twice that of the rate of increase of wages, making society worse off. Wage rises are not keeping up with inflation, thus in real terms, salaries are falling.

Inflation to be highest rate for 3 years

This article here highlights that inflation CPI is expected, by city forecasters, to hit 4.9% or even as high as 5.1%. Please read the whole article as it contains information about that rate of pensions increases and past inflation, which is very beneficial to know for the exam!

Word of the Day

Inflation

A continuous rise in the average price level. Measured by the Retail Price Index (RPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The RPI contains mortgage interest payments thus it is always larger than the CPI. Usually inflation is measured by the CPI. In the UK, the current rate of inflation is 4.5% (June) while the Bank of England's target rate of inflation is 2%.