Cigarettes on the Black Market

This post is an example of the Law of unintended consequences. One in three cigarettes sold in London in the beginning of this year is illegal, in contrast to the one in five that it was at the end of 2011. The black market for tobacco is responsible a loss of revenue to the Treasury accounting to more than £2billion, going to smugglers and criminal gangs instead. 


Key points to remember from this case study: 


1. Increasing taxes on demerit goods may not provide incentives for people to give up/consume less, instead giving incentives for people to sell illegitimate 'illicit whites'. 


2. They are bought and shipped from China very cheaply and sold cheaply for people to consume (Black Market). Evidence against free trade and China?


3. Taxation is designed to raise money for government expenditure, however £25million is spent by the government to reduce black market activity. 


4. Demand for tobacco (as with any demerit good) is inelastic, meaning that the proportionate rise in price will lead to a less proportionate fall in demand, because consumers are satisfied with illegitimate copies.

Smugglers can make approximately £1.65million from bringing in a container of 10million counterfeit cigarettes. Each packet is made for just 20p and they have been found to contain substances such as asbestos (a harmful substance known to cause lung cancer and other illnesses). 

Fiscal Policy video

Paj Holden's video on fiscal policy is a great material for revision or learning fiscal policy from scratch.

Key points/summary of topics explained

Fiscal policy - manipulating government spending and taxation levels in order to manage the level of AD in the economy.

Definition of AD (C+I+G+X-M)

In a weak economy (low AD), the government might consider loosening fiscal policy - lower taxes (boost consumption) and increasing government spending. Disadvantage of loose fiscal policy, if spending becomes too high, deficits rise, creating problems, such as the Eurozone crisis.

Explains the Euro crisis

Business cycle and output gaps

Note: The AD/AS diagram he uses shows the Keynesian LRAS (notes to come!)

Case Study: Greece

---> GDP growth of -6.6%

---> Budget deficit (2009) was 15% of GDP. In 2010, it was 11% of GDP and in 2011 it was 8% as a result of increased taxes and lower government spending (austerity measures). However the Greek government is still spending 8% more than revenues gained from taxation. There is also interest gained from the additional spending, demonstrating the importance of their fiscal constraints.


Quantitative Easing

Discretionary Fiscal Policy

Using fiscal policy in response to economic conditions, e.g. a recession, to induce changes in the economy. Some economists say that discretionary fiscal policy can be a good way to reduce the volatility of business cycles. For example if economic growth is slowing and forecasters predict that a down turn/recession may occur by the next year, expansionary fiscal policy may be used to reduce the impact. However, forecasters' predictions do not always come true, thus giving the case against using discretionary. Also, effects of fiscal policy do not show immediately due to the time lag, thus there is danger of in fact worsening the economic situation than improving it.

What does the UK's economic growth tell us about the impact of cuts?

This blog was created to help you find resources for your exams, as well as providing specific exam revision notes, so below is the link to an article that talks about government cuts and their impacts on society.

http://www.rsablogs.org.uk/2011/adam-lent/growth-data-impact-cuts/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rsaprojects+%28RSA+blogs%29

 
Make notes about what you read, and notice that the view of Adam Lent conveys that government cuts have not yet stifled growth.

The Andrew Marr Show

This morning the Chancellor, George Osborne and the shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, were on The Andrew Carr show talking about the economy and the government's fiscal position. The Chancellor outlines the new schemes that are being introduced to help small medium sized businesses and Britain's position in the Eurozone crisis.

Here is the link for BBC iplayer to watch it:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01803z5

Next week Nick Clegg is on the show, so for those of you who are still interested in what he has to say, watch the show next week as well. Alternatively, I will post up the iplayer link next week as well.

BBC programme called 'Your Money and How They Spend It'

There is a really good programme by the BBC's political editor, Nick Robinson. It concerns itself with the fiscal policy of the UK in the past and the future. It describes the government's decisions in the allocation of resources and how the government spends our money. The programme is on the link here and is broadcast every Wednesday at 9pm on BBC2.  The issues discussed include:

• Politics
• UK's budget
• Ageing population
• Winter fuel allowance
• Pensions
• NHS
• Financial crisis 2008
• Tuition fees
• Inequality
• Infrastructure spending

Please watch it, there are case studies that you can use in your exam and some statistics that, if you learn, will make your exam answers different than others. It is also useful to know about previous governments' fiscal policies. The extra knowledge that you will receive will definitely be beneficial.

Code for Fiscal Stability (1998)

·     Based on the 5 principles of tax

o      Equitable

o      Economical

o      Efficient

o      Convenient

o      Flexible

Includes:

·     The Golden Rule

o      The government should only borrow to fund new social capital (capital spending, i.e. schools, roads…etc) and not current spending (e.g. welfare benefits)

·     The Sustainable Investment Rule

o      Public sector net debt should not rise above 40% of national income at the end of each financial year of the economic cycle

·     If the government stuck to the two rules, the public sector budget should, in theory, balance out over the course of one economic cycle because the government is not increasing current spending. A deficit is run on capital spending instead, thus balancing it out.

·     Aims

o      To limit how much the government borrows and for what purpose

o      Allow automatic stabilisers (see here) to smooth over the economy

o      Support the role of the monetary policy

o      Avoid an unsustainable increase in public sector debt

o      Ensure that tax revenues that are collected finance public spending as far as possible

·     Australia and New Zealand had a similar code

·     The government complied with the rules from the full economic cycle between 1997-1998 to 2006-2007, just before the recessions/economic crisis.

·     In November 2008, it was written in the pre-budget report that the code had been suspended to allow for the government to act appropriately in response to the global recession.

·     It was replaced by a less restrictive ‘temporary operating rule’ where the target was to manage public finances over the medium term. 

Please note, the Fiscal Policy Framework and the Code for Fiscal Stability should be used in the exam for demonstrating your understanding of past and previous fiscal policy used by governments. As it is no longer in use, be careful when mentioning in the exam.

Stealth Tax

An indirect tax that government's try to implement as they think people will not notice them. They can be thought of as being 'secretly' implemented.

When the UK government introduced the Fiscal Policy Framework and the Code of Fiscal Stability (1998), one disadvantage was that it didn't stop the introduction of stealth taxes. For more on the Code of Fiscal Stability, look here

Supply Side Economics

Supply side economic policy is a set of government initiatives that aim to improve the economic performance of markets and industries. Policies tend to be more microeconomic because they focus of individual economic agents. Policies aim to:

· Increase competition within markets

· Increase efficiency within markets

· Increase the economy’s potential production – PPF/LRAS (see here for more)

Supply side fiscal policy

· Creating personal incentives to improve economic performance of the supply-side of the economy

· Since 1979, supply-side fiscal policy had been used by Labour and Conservative governments

· Supply-side economists believe that high levels of government spending, taxation and borrowing lead to crowding out (see below) of the public sector.

The intended effects of supply-side policies are shown below:

It is the free market view that supply-side policies should be used to increase efficiency and competition within markets.

Crowding out

Resource crowding out

Assuming there is no spare capacity in the economy and full employment of all resources, resource crowding out is when employing more labour and capital in the public sector sacrifices the use of the same resources by the private sector. Resource crowding out does not happen when there is spare capacity in the economy because government spending can be seen as ‘picking up the slack’ of the private sector. The private sector can be stimulated and crowding in can occur.

Financial crowding out

Increasing taxes to facilitate for high levels of government expenditure reduces the spending power of private sector firms.