UPDATE: The state of the European economy

Recently, Europe’s economy has avoided appearing on many of our news screens what with other international affairs such as Russia/ Ukraine, Syria and Iraq in the headlines for probably my entire summer holidays. But that doesn't mean that the European economy is all hunky-dory and the recession is a thing of the past.

This post is an update of what is actually going on in Europe right now, giving you three key case studies: Italy, France and Germany.

Italy

·      Triple dip recession – GDP fell by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2014

·      12.6% unemployment rate

·      43% youth unemployment

·      Little political will to do anything about it

France

·      Rising budget deficit

·      Last quarter’s GDP growth: 0%!

·      Chance of going back into recession, was also 0% in the quarter before last

Germany

·      GDP fell 0.2% in the last quarter, the first GDP contraction this year

·      Manufacturing sector slow down

·      Geopolitics is affecting growth: Russia’s embargo on European food imports is apparently affecting 9.5m European farmers, and is affecting Germany’s trade

Key points to note about Europe right now:

·      Low inflation.

Average Euro Area: 0.4%

Deflation in 8 Eurozone countries including the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain)

Country in Eurozone	Inflation rate
France	0.4%
Italy	-0.1%
Germany	0.8%
Spain	-0.5%
Greece	-0.3%
Portugal	0.4%

Why is this a problem?

·           Increases the real value of debt which means that government debt increases making it harder to pay off and increasing the likelihood of needing another bail out

·           Taxes will have to rise eventually to fund the increased debt accumulation which means businesses will have a higher tax burden à leaving some Eurozone countries

·           There is danger of falling into a deflation trap where prices just keep falling. This is called a deflation spiral.

·      High unemployment

·      High government debt

·      Political upheaval

·      Geopolitics with Russia

·      Lack of political union

Different countries in the Eurozone want different things and have different views with how situations should be handled, e.g. with Russia, which makes it hard to manage economic policy and introduce austerity measures where needed.

What can be done?

·           Keep interest rates low – increasing interest rates will just decrease inflation more

·           “Quantitative Easing lite”: the European Central bank buys assets to stimulate the economy and help inflation rise

Anything else?

·           Role of competition in markets:

o   There was a period of very low inflation during the late 19^th century in Germany and the UK

o   Analysis shows there was competition in markets and businesses operated in a competitive environment

o   Competition restricts wage growth because there are many companies in the same industry offering the same job and the same wage. This is happening now!!!

o   A competitive market means that firms are unwilling to increase the price of goods and services – preventing inflation from rising. This is happening now!!!

o   It is therefore hard to increase inflation. This is happening now!!!

Fiscal Policy video

Paj Holden's video on fiscal policy is a great material for revision or learning fiscal policy from scratch.

Key points/summary of topics explained

Fiscal policy - manipulating government spending and taxation levels in order to manage the level of AD in the economy.

Definition of AD (C+I+G+X-M)

In a weak economy (low AD), the government might consider loosening fiscal policy - lower taxes (boost consumption) and increasing government spending. Disadvantage of loose fiscal policy, if spending becomes too high, deficits rise, creating problems, such as the Eurozone crisis.

Explains the Euro crisis

Business cycle and output gaps

Note: The AD/AS diagram he uses shows the Keynesian LRAS (notes to come!)

Case Study: Greece

---> GDP growth of -6.6%

---> Budget deficit (2009) was 15% of GDP. In 2010, it was 11% of GDP and in 2011 it was 8% as a result of increased taxes and lower government spending (austerity measures). However the Greek government is still spending 8% more than revenues gained from taxation. There is also interest gained from the additional spending, demonstrating the importance of their fiscal constraints.


Quantitative Easing

Bad News for Britain

The UK's budget deficit (amount by which government expenditure is in excess of tax revenues) rose above £1 trillion (£1,000,000,000,000!) for the first time, in December 2011. This spells bad news for us because:

1. It means the government's deficit reduction plan is not working, which could mean deeper cuts for the rest of 2012.

2. The Eurozone crisis

Use this as a case study for what happens if the government uses Keynesian policies to increase economic growth (Labour's government policies....). Unemployment rose the same time as the deficit reaches an all time high, evidence for crowding out?

Discretionary Fiscal Policy

Using fiscal policy in response to economic conditions, e.g. a recession, to induce changes in the economy. Some economists say that discretionary fiscal policy can be a good way to reduce the volatility of business cycles. For example if economic growth is slowing and forecasters predict that a down turn/recession may occur by the next year, expansionary fiscal policy may be used to reduce the impact. However, forecasters' predictions do not always come true, thus giving the case against using discretionary. Also, effects of fiscal policy do not show immediately due to the time lag, thus there is danger of in fact worsening the economic situation than improving it.

What does the UK's economic growth tell us about the impact of cuts?

This blog was created to help you find resources for your exams, as well as providing specific exam revision notes, so below is the link to an article that talks about government cuts and their impacts on society.

http://www.rsablogs.org.uk/2011/adam-lent/growth-data-impact-cuts/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rsaprojects+%28RSA+blogs%29

 
Make notes about what you read, and notice that the view of Adam Lent conveys that government cuts have not yet stifled growth.

The Andrew Marr Show

This morning the Chancellor, George Osborne and the shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, were on The Andrew Carr show talking about the economy and the government's fiscal position. The Chancellor outlines the new schemes that are being introduced to help small medium sized businesses and Britain's position in the Eurozone crisis.

Here is the link for BBC iplayer to watch it:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01803z5

Next week Nick Clegg is on the show, so for those of you who are still interested in what he has to say, watch the show next week as well. Alternatively, I will post up the iplayer link next week as well.

BBC programme called 'Your Money and How They Spend It'

There is a really good programme by the BBC's political editor, Nick Robinson. It concerns itself with the fiscal policy of the UK in the past and the future. It describes the government's decisions in the allocation of resources and how the government spends our money. The programme is on the link here and is broadcast every Wednesday at 9pm on BBC2.  The issues discussed include:

• Politics
• UK's budget
• Ageing population
• Winter fuel allowance
• Pensions
• NHS
• Financial crisis 2008
• Tuition fees
• Inequality
• Infrastructure spending

Please watch it, there are case studies that you can use in your exam and some statistics that, if you learn, will make your exam answers different than others. It is also useful to know about previous governments' fiscal policies. The extra knowledge that you will receive will definitely be beneficial.

Code for Fiscal Stability (1998)

·     Based on the 5 principles of tax

o      Equitable

o      Economical

o      Efficient

o      Convenient

o      Flexible

Includes:

·     The Golden Rule

o      The government should only borrow to fund new social capital (capital spending, i.e. schools, roads…etc) and not current spending (e.g. welfare benefits)

·     The Sustainable Investment Rule

o      Public sector net debt should not rise above 40% of national income at the end of each financial year of the economic cycle

·     If the government stuck to the two rules, the public sector budget should, in theory, balance out over the course of one economic cycle because the government is not increasing current spending. A deficit is run on capital spending instead, thus balancing it out.

·     Aims

o      To limit how much the government borrows and for what purpose

o      Allow automatic stabilisers (see here) to smooth over the economy

o      Support the role of the monetary policy

o      Avoid an unsustainable increase in public sector debt

o      Ensure that tax revenues that are collected finance public spending as far as possible

·     Australia and New Zealand had a similar code

·     The government complied with the rules from the full economic cycle between 1997-1998 to 2006-2007, just before the recessions/economic crisis.

·     In November 2008, it was written in the pre-budget report that the code had been suspended to allow for the government to act appropriately in response to the global recession.

·     It was replaced by a less restrictive ‘temporary operating rule’ where the target was to manage public finances over the medium term. 

Please note, the Fiscal Policy Framework and the Code for Fiscal Stability should be used in the exam for demonstrating your understanding of past and previous fiscal policy used by governments. As it is no longer in use, be careful when mentioning in the exam.

Supply Side Economics

Supply side economic policy is a set of government initiatives that aim to improve the economic performance of markets and industries. Policies tend to be more microeconomic because they focus of individual economic agents. Policies aim to:

· Increase competition within markets

· Increase efficiency within markets

· Increase the economy’s potential production – PPF/LRAS (see here for more)

Supply side fiscal policy

· Creating personal incentives to improve economic performance of the supply-side of the economy

· Since 1979, supply-side fiscal policy had been used by Labour and Conservative governments

· Supply-side economists believe that high levels of government spending, taxation and borrowing lead to crowding out (see below) of the public sector.

The intended effects of supply-side policies are shown below:

It is the free market view that supply-side policies should be used to increase efficiency and competition within markets.

Crowding out

Resource crowding out

Assuming there is no spare capacity in the economy and full employment of all resources, resource crowding out is when employing more labour and capital in the public sector sacrifices the use of the same resources by the private sector. Resource crowding out does not happen when there is spare capacity in the economy because government spending can be seen as ‘picking up the slack’ of the private sector. The private sector can be stimulated and crowding in can occur.

Financial crowding out

Increasing taxes to facilitate for high levels of government expenditure reduces the spending power of private sector firms.

State of the World Economy

Just an article from The Economist about the future of the world economy. Worth a read. Print it out, highlight it...etc.

Here's the link:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/09/world-economy?fsrc=nlw|pub|09-28-11|publishers_newsletter

Public Good

A good that possesses the following characteristics:

• Non-excludable: You cannot stop anyone from using the good.
• Non-rival: If you use the good, it is equally available to others who want to use it as well.

Examples: Street lights, national defense

How public goods are a form of market failure

If a public good is provided to a market, e.g. national defense, the social benefits are greater than the private benefits, creating a positive externality (notes on positive externalities can be found here, as are the notes on merit goods which cause positive externalities of consumption, or you can take a look at separate merit goods notes. Also, you can take a look at negative externaility if you want, only try not to confuse yourself! See here). This means that people know that the benefits to them if they join the army is that the country can be at an advantage during war. However this is the same benefit people will receive if they don't join the army, so people are inclined not to join the army because the cost is too high (risk of death) and there are mutual benefits to those who have joined with those who haven't. This is called the free-rider problem. People benefit from goods/services that they haven't paid for. This is market failure because there is no market incentive for people to join the army, or for the private sector to provide national defense.

Public goods can be a form of market failure if the price mechanism breaks down. If the provision of street signs and road signs requires people to pay (i.e market provision), some people will pay and some people won't (free rider problem). Businesses providing road signs will not check who has and hasn't paid because too many people are benefiting from them (due to the properties of a public good, see above). Thus by the creation of a positive externality, the private sector does not see it profitable to continue providing road signs, leading to market failure.

Solution

Government provision of public goods financed through taxation. This ensures everyone pays for it and everyone benefits from it.

Global Economy

For those of you who have been watching the news recently, you should know that there is fear that the global economy could double-dip which the USA in serious risk. Below is a summary of the main uncertainties the global economy faces.

The IMF says…

· There is sluggish economic growth

· Governments need to rethink their policies

· The UK growth forecast needs to be reduced (and George Osborne said so too). Economic growth in the UK has been revised to a mere 1.1%

· Deficit reduction plan needs to be delayed

Eurozone

· Italian credit rating degraded

· Protests in Greece

· 40% of our exports go to the eurozone.

All advanced economies are facing tough times.

The UK government should focus more on capital spending (spending on infrastructure). This will stimulate the economy because infrastructure provides the correct conditions for business and enterprise to flourish. It will create jobs in the short run and long run, and should increase economic growth in the long run.

It's good to be on the ball with all the latest economic news.