Savings or Consumption?

I came across this great video about savings and consumption today. This video highlights the importance of savings in the economy, despite the common conception that consumption may be a more important component of the economy. I was told in school that consumption was roughly 70% of the economy. Indeed, in Keynes' view, increasing consumption will increase growth via higher spending. Remember that AD = C + I + G + (X-I), where AD = aggregate demand, C = consumption, I = investment, G = government spending, X = exports, I = imports. If consumption increases, the left hand side of the equation, AD, increases. An increase in AD will increase economic growth, so the argument goes. 

But this 3 minute video actually argues the opposite. Savings are more important for the economy because it allows investment to grow and this helps increase production. In exams, the examiners are looking for a balanced argument. These alternative views are perfect to help you gain extra marks. 

UPDATE: The state of the European economy

Recently, Europe’s economy has avoided appearing on many of our news screens what with other international affairs such as Russia/ Ukraine, Syria and Iraq in the headlines for probably my entire summer holidays. But that doesn't mean that the European economy is all hunky-dory and the recession is a thing of the past.

This post is an update of what is actually going on in Europe right now, giving you three key case studies: Italy, France and Germany.

Italy

·      Triple dip recession – GDP fell by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2014

·      12.6% unemployment rate

·      43% youth unemployment

·      Little political will to do anything about it

France

·      Rising budget deficit

·      Last quarter’s GDP growth: 0%!

·      Chance of going back into recession, was also 0% in the quarter before last

Germany

·      GDP fell 0.2% in the last quarter, the first GDP contraction this year

·      Manufacturing sector slow down

·      Geopolitics is affecting growth: Russia’s embargo on European food imports is apparently affecting 9.5m European farmers, and is affecting Germany’s trade

Key points to note about Europe right now:

·      Low inflation.

Average Euro Area: 0.4%

Deflation in 8 Eurozone countries including the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain)

Country in Eurozone	Inflation rate
France	0.4%
Italy	-0.1%
Germany	0.8%
Spain	-0.5%
Greece	-0.3%
Portugal	0.4%

Why is this a problem?

·           Increases the real value of debt which means that government debt increases making it harder to pay off and increasing the likelihood of needing another bail out

·           Taxes will have to rise eventually to fund the increased debt accumulation which means businesses will have a higher tax burden à leaving some Eurozone countries

·           There is danger of falling into a deflation trap where prices just keep falling. This is called a deflation spiral.

·      High unemployment

·      High government debt

·      Political upheaval

·      Geopolitics with Russia

·      Lack of political union

Different countries in the Eurozone want different things and have different views with how situations should be handled, e.g. with Russia, which makes it hard to manage economic policy and introduce austerity measures where needed.

What can be done?

·           Keep interest rates low – increasing interest rates will just decrease inflation more

·           “Quantitative Easing lite”: the European Central bank buys assets to stimulate the economy and help inflation rise

Anything else?

·           Role of competition in markets:

o   There was a period of very low inflation during the late 19^th century in Germany and the UK

o   Analysis shows there was competition in markets and businesses operated in a competitive environment

o   Competition restricts wage growth because there are many companies in the same industry offering the same job and the same wage. This is happening now!!!

o   A competitive market means that firms are unwilling to increase the price of goods and services – preventing inflation from rising. This is happening now!!!

o   It is therefore hard to increase inflation. This is happening now!!!

UK and Foreign Capital

Last week it was reported that 53.2% of shares of UK-listed companies are foreign owned. This post sees globalisation rearing its head again, discussing further impacts of globalisation on the UK economy.

More than half of all shares in UK-listed companies are owned by foreigners which shows the UK’s greater integration with the global economy. One reason for this is that people in emerging economies such as China and India are investing more abroad as they become wealthier. Another reason for this is that foreigners tend to look for investment opportunities in other countries, particularly rich countries, as a safe place to put their money, thus their attraction to the UK.

An increase in foreign capital coming to the UK can help us reduce our current account deficit. Investment is a component of aggregate demand, and so increasing investment can increase demand and help reduce the effects of the financial crisis.

(Evaluation point: it could, however, be showing that many UK-listed companies are foreign and conduct little business in the UK)

One negative consequence of foreigners owning shares in UK companies is that board level decisions are more difficult to make because directors are scattered all around the world. This point is key as it links micro with macro, something examiners relish to find in top exam answers.

China - Case Study II

China's E-Commerce Market

Following on from the Chinese Case Study I post, these notes explain how China is moving in a positive direction to achieve three of its future growth targets (increase innovation, increase the global presence of Chinese companies and increase growth coming from domestic consumption).

By 2020 China’s e-commerce market is forecast to be bigger than the existing markets in America, Britain, Japan, Germany and France combined (from The Economist)

Alibaba

Innovation:

• Alibaba is a business to business e-commerce company that sells Chinese goods to overseas suppliers.
• The company understands the spending habits of Chinese consumers
• Alifinance is microlender to small firms (planning on expanding to normal customers too)
• Insurance

Increase the global presence of Chinese companies: Alibaba is looking to become public (i.e. be listed on a stock exchange), and looking to expand to other emerging economies.

Domestic consumption: ‘Bamboo Capitalism’ is the term used to describe the efficiency of private firms opposed to Chinese state-owned enterprises. Growth in private sector firms drives domestic consumption.

Bottom line: E-commerce is driving future growth in China.

Challenges

• China’s companies are viewed with suspicion abroad
• Chinese firms are accused of supporting human rights abuses for access to resources (read this Economist article about China in Africa) 

China - Case Study I

Key Questions:

·         Is growth increasing incomes on the average Chinese?

·         Is growth lifting people out of poverty?

·         Is minimum wage industrialisation the best way to achieve growth?

QUALITY of growth matters

·         Average income for a Chinese worker is (USD)$8000

·         By 2020, it is estimated that average Chinese wages would have risen to (US) $14,000. This level is considered to be the upper income level that moved countries such as Singapore, South Korea, Greece and Portugal, to ‘rich’ country stats - the level that moved these countries past the boundary

Five year plan

·         China’s growth has been, on average, 9.6% over the past 30 years

·         The five year plan is the government’s 12th five-year plan used to set the future growth agenda for China

·         Renewed in 2011, the priorities for this plan are sustainable growth, industrial upgrading and the promotion of domestic consumption

·         Criticism: there is no implementation plan

See kpmg report:

·         Half of china’s growth comes from adding capital. Bear in mind that growth quality is now becoming the most important thing to think about rather than growth quantity

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is measured by innovation, allocative efficiency (re-allocation of factors, e.g. rural to urban, state owned to private) and human capital. TFP is the contribution of all factors of production to growth. When TFP increases, the growth rate increases. This means that one or more of the factors of production has been changed.

Innovation - micro level data shows that ⅔ technology comes from imitation, most developing countries imitate first to gain enough wealth to then invest it into R&D for new product development. Imitation leads to innovation - creating an increase in growth.

Human capital - China’s investment in human capital is geographical unevenly distributed. Rural parts of China are under-invested in. If China invests in human capital all round, it has a better chance competing with other economies. Human capital is beneficial because:

·         Skill levels increase. E.g. they will be more qualified to perform tasks and will do so quicker

·         Creates a flexible economy - workers have a greater capacity to adapt to changes in the economy, i.e. seize new opportunities for wealth creation

·         Increases occupational mobility of labour and geographical mobility of labour as because of the previous point

·         High levels of education can increase a worker’s ability to use foreign technology, their ability to absorb new information and acquire technical skills

Middle Income Trap

China needs to avoid the middle income trap. The middle income trap is the trap that developing countries fall into when trying to make their transition from a developing country to a developed country. They are not low income by definition, i.e. they experience high growth rates and make money, but they are not high income countries because they do not have technological advantages. China’s wages are starting to increase, as shown here, demonstrating that what was once the most popular destination for cheap manufacturing, is now losing to countries such as Bangladesh and Singapore.

Key points:

·         Wages are increasing

·         Poverty is slowing decreasing

·         Innovation is creeping up

·         Chinese firms are expanding globally

·         Without the prospect for cheap labour, firms will be deterred from investing in China

·         Only urban members of the workforce are educated, also potentially deterring firms

·         The Chinese economy is still imitating

These points suggest that China is heading for the middle income trap, a limbo between the rich and poor, unable to progress. There are criticisms of the middle income trap, read the Economist article here to gain other perspectives, which will help you build your argument in your exam. Remember that providing alternative views are brownie points. Read the sources at the bottom as well.

The Future

·         Focus on overcoming the middle income trap

·         Increase own market reliance, e.g. US consumers are increasingly buying domestically produced goods

·         Increase domestic demand by lowering exports. E.g. exports are only a fraction in the US - China needs to get to that

·         Privatise. State owned companies are not as productive. They distort the allocation of lending and bank credit. State owned enterprises account for 30% industrial output and ¼ of urban jobs

·         Increase innovation

·         Increase opening - more Chinese firms should go global.

o        We have seen Chinese investment in African natural resources, which is a start. They are building infrastructure in poor African countries and providing jobs (however a negative is that they are competing with local firms and undercutting them, making it difficult for locals to make a living)

o        China should focus on moving up the value chain by producing things that is most competitive

o        The government should push to create Chinese multinationals

o        At the moment, Europe in particular can benefit from the additional investment that Chinese firms can offer

·         Services are important - increase job creation, create a high skilled labour force and help China rebalance

·         Raise consumption as a share of GDP, not rising it in absolute terms

·         Restructure the economy: more services, quality of growth needs to increase

·         Productivity and innovation: compete to produce the best products in the world. Join the ranks of rich countries, e.g. Samsung (South Korea) competing with Apple (US)

·         Political reforms are required to sustain a prosperous middle class

Case Study/ Example of Public Sector and Private Sector Cooperation

The UK Driving Standards Agency recently set out plans to run driving tests from Halfords branches around the UK. 15 Halfords branches are set to become test centres to improve accessibility to those who do not live close to a test centre. The driving tests will still be conducted by DSA examiners, so Halfords is simply playing host.

This provides a good example of private firms contributing to social welfare in a positive way, and has been the first for a long time (e.g. remember G4S?). Both examples can be used to describe the benefits and costs of PPPs or private sector involvement with government.

Top Posts of 2012

Happy new years everyone! Like last year when I posted the top 10 posts of 2011, its time to reveal the most viewed posts of 2012.

10. Once again its Trade Unions, posted on 16 November 2011

9. Word of the Day: Economic Growth posted on 3 August 2011

8. New entry Production Possibility Frontier and Long Run Aggregate Supply posted on 5 August 2011

7. Oligopoly, up from last year posted on 21 April 2012

6. Negative Externalities posted on 16 September 2011

5. Monopoly posted on 23 August 2011

4. Another new entry! Unemployment notes posted on 22 January 2012

3. Non mover Word of the Day: Elasticity posted on 13 August 2011

2. Another non mover Perfect Competition Long Run Equilibrium posted on 11 August 2011

1. A further non mover! The most viewed entry in 2012 was Perfect Competition Short Run Equilibrium posted on 10 August 2011

Seems market structures are popular topics that a lot of you are struggling with, but I'm glad that my posts are being viewed to help you out.

Subscribe and recommend to friends!

Deck the Halls with Macro Follies

Here's something to get you all into the Christmas spirit, economics style!

This is a video summing up the different economic schools of thought from Keynes, Malthus (less relevant), J. B Say (from Say's Law) and Hayek in playful song.

Its surprisingly enjoyable to listen to and is also a nice quick and dirty memory refresher for the key economics viewpoints. Here you go:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uKnd6IEiO0

About a year ago I posted up other playful videos from Econstories on Boom and Bust and Fight of the Century.

Very useful website (part from this one obviously!)

Hi everyone, I came across this brilliant website for economics explanations, recent news analysis..etc. They have recommendations for textbooks, tailored exam board guidance, lots and lots of notes and graphs! Read it!

http://economicsonline.co.uk/

Enjoy!

Michael Portillo's 'Great Euro Crisis'

On BBC2 on Wednesday night was a very information documentary about the Eurozone crisis, in particular Greece. You can watch it here on BBC iplayer. Remember it won't be there forever, do take time to watch it.


Summary:

• One quarter shops have closed since the crisis began in 2008
• Social costs: Graffiti everywhere, dereliction
• Michael Portillo's view is that Greece's joining the euro created the crisis
• Introduction of the Euro: purpose - to help the poorer European countries catch up to their richer counterparts
• The Euro has made Greece uncompetitive, considering the Drachma was weak and this helped fuel demand for their exports
• The Euro also increased the amount of exports entering the country, particularly cars (what made it easier was the wide availability of credit for Greeks to finance the purchase of these cars)
• In 6 years, Greece's deficit from Germany went up from under €3bn to over €8bn
• Another contribution to the debt: transport advancements (equipment could not be manufactured in Greece, so had to be imported by German companies) were paid for with debt, and tax evasion
• Devaluing the currency (going back to the Drachma) can help improve their competitiveness
• Government put national assets (e.g. the airport) among other austerity measures, to try to save the country

Another Contribution to the Business Cycle

Read an interesting article on the BBC about the cost of bank holidays, according to research from The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

Each bank holiday costs the economy £2.3m and that means the economy could gain an extra £19bn if bank holidays were scrapped. This can be a contribution to the business cycle (see here) because bank holidays reduce GDP. If the economy was suffering a downturn, the loss of GDP can cause the economy to worsen from a downturn to a recession. For the UK, especially at a time where we are not experiencing strong growth, forecasters are predicting the worst from the working days that are lost.

15% of the economy, which includes pubs, clubs, restaurants, cafes and visitor attractions, do well on bank holidays and 45% of the economy suffers, which includes offices, factories and building sites, where people do not go to work on the bank holiday. The areas that benefit do not balance out the loss of productivity from the services sector of the economy.

Do read the full article for more information.

Quantitative Easing (QE)

QE causes a change in the money supply. Steps:

1. The Bank of England (BoE) purchases assets such as government bonds and corporate bonds
2. Pays for these assets by creating money electronically and crediting the accounts of the companies that it bought assets from
3. These accounts are called reserves. All banks hold reserves at the BoE and the essence of QE is that it builds up these reserves
4. QE is likely to lead to inflation because banks lend more and increases the money supply (see Quantity Theory of Money). Another reason for inflation is, holding everything else equal (ceteris paribus), more people have more money that they supposedly use for consumption, creating demand pull inflation

Explained by Stephanie Flanders

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16973560

Stephanie Flanders in the BBC’s economics editor, the link above provides a short video RSAnimate of QE. A summary of the video is as follows:

·         The Bank of England creates money and spends it so that there is “extra cash” flowing into the economy. They spend it by buying government bonds or IOU’s (formal definition: documentation confirming that the debt is owed) from financial institutions such as pension funds or insurance companies.

·         This puts more money into the economy (higher money supply) because these financial institutions that sold these bonds have more money to spend on new businesses or on housing for example.

·         Because of this, it is cheaper for the government to borrow as the BoE pushes up demand for the Treasury’s IOUs and supply of bonds has been reduced. Long term interest rates are lower than they should be making it cheaper for everyone else to borrow as well, because higher demand means more spending and this leads to faster growth.

The last point explains the theory WHY the government uses QE even with the risk of inflation, particularly during recessions. If demand rises, consumption may increase and the economy begins to recover. 

GREECE

Here is a great selection of videos on Greece, posted in Tutor2u. I remember using this website for my revision, please have a look at their other posts.

http://www.tutor2u.net/blog/index.php/economics/comments/unit-4-macro-video-resources-on-the-euro-crisis?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+economics_news+%28tutor2u+Economics+Blog%29#When:08:08:15Z

Cigarettes on the Black Market

This post is an example of the Law of unintended consequences. One in three cigarettes sold in London in the beginning of this year is illegal, in contrast to the one in five that it was at the end of 2011. The black market for tobacco is responsible a loss of revenue to the Treasury accounting to more than £2billion, going to smugglers and criminal gangs instead. 


Key points to remember from this case study: 


1. Increasing taxes on demerit goods may not provide incentives for people to give up/consume less, instead giving incentives for people to sell illegitimate 'illicit whites'. 


2. They are bought and shipped from China very cheaply and sold cheaply for people to consume (Black Market). Evidence against free trade and China?


3. Taxation is designed to raise money for government expenditure, however £25million is spent by the government to reduce black market activity. 


4. Demand for tobacco (as with any demerit good) is inelastic, meaning that the proportionate rise in price will lead to a less proportionate fall in demand, because consumers are satisfied with illegitimate copies.

Smugglers can make approximately £1.65million from bringing in a container of 10million counterfeit cigarettes. Each packet is made for just 20p and they have been found to contain substances such as asbestos (a harmful substance known to cause lung cancer and other illnesses). 

Costs of Inflation

Watch this video about the costs of inflation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zFQ0KhKkpw&feature=youtu.be

Also see inflation word of the day

Inflation for January 2012

Inflation fell to 3.6% in January, as forecasters predicted. Read more on the Financial Times. The ease in inflation may give signs that this 'stagflation' that the economy has been experiencing may be shifting away. The coming months will tell how unemployment will change in response (Phillips Curve). Inflation faces downward pressure from the effects of higher unemployment, slow exports markets (due to the Eurozone) and lower energy prices (causing a rise in imports).

A further £50bn Quantitative Easing that the MPC authorised earlier this month shows that there is still deficient demand in the economy and it may continue to stay low. Thus economists are predicting more QE to keep inflation from falling below the government's 2% target.

Fiscal Policy video

Paj Holden's video on fiscal policy is a great material for revision or learning fiscal policy from scratch.

Key points/summary of topics explained

Fiscal policy - manipulating government spending and taxation levels in order to manage the level of AD in the economy.

Definition of AD (C+I+G+X-M)

In a weak economy (low AD), the government might consider loosening fiscal policy - lower taxes (boost consumption) and increasing government spending. Disadvantage of loose fiscal policy, if spending becomes too high, deficits rise, creating problems, such as the Eurozone crisis.

Explains the Euro crisis

Business cycle and output gaps

Note: The AD/AS diagram he uses shows the Keynesian LRAS (notes to come!)

Case Study: Greece

---> GDP growth of -6.6%

---> Budget deficit (2009) was 15% of GDP. In 2010, it was 11% of GDP and in 2011 it was 8% as a result of increased taxes and lower government spending (austerity measures). However the Greek government is still spending 8% more than revenues gained from taxation. There is also interest gained from the additional spending, demonstrating the importance of their fiscal constraints.


Quantitative Easing

Bad News for Britain

The UK's budget deficit (amount by which government expenditure is in excess of tax revenues) rose above £1 trillion (£1,000,000,000,000!) for the first time, in December 2011. This spells bad news for us because:

1. It means the government's deficit reduction plan is not working, which could mean deeper cuts for the rest of 2012.

2. The Eurozone crisis

Use this as a case study for what happens if the government uses Keynesian policies to increase economic growth (Labour's government policies....). Unemployment rose the same time as the deficit reaches an all time high, evidence for crowding out?

Government Policies to Reduce Unemployment

For government to use the correct policy to reduce unemployment, they must first recognise the cause of unemployment (see here). Using Keynesian fiscal policy to increase AD may be ineffective if structural unemployment is taking place, for example, since this will simply result in inflation.

Free market view

Government policies should only be aimed at reducing structural, frictional and real wage unemployment. Cyclical and seasonal unemployment can be resolved through the market mechanism. Setting markets free can encourage competition and enterprise culture, creating more jobs. Supply can create its own demand.

Keynesian view

The government should intervene to correct the market failure that causes unemployment. They should try to make markets function better, giving them a greater role that the free market economists believe.

Case Study – Government ‘Work Programme’

·       Aimed at reducing long term unemployment and tackling youth unemployment

·       It is a partnership with private companies

·       More information: http://www.dwp.gov.uk/policy/welfare-reform/the-work-programme/

Unemployment Notes

Full employment is, according to the Beveridge definition, when 3% or less of the work force is unemployed. At current, the unemployment rate is 8.4% of the labour force, indicating that the UK is performing far from full employment and full productive capacity. More detail can be found from notes published on 5th August.

The Natural Rate of Unemployment (NRU) is the rate of unemployment that occurs even when the aggregate labour market is in equilibrium (AD_L = AS_L). Below is a diagram illustrating NRU.

Point X is the equilibrium, AD_L = AS_L, the market going wage rate is W_FE and full employment occurs when E_FE workers are hired. AS_LN shows how many more workers are willing and able to work at different wage rates but cannot due to frictional (geographical immobility) and structural unemployment (lack of skills). The NRU can be calculated by E_FE – E₁.

NRU can also be linked with inflation. NRU is also known as the Non- Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). This means that it is the only rate of unemployment that does not alter the rate of inflation.

Causes of unemployment

·     Frictional unemployment relates to the time taken to find a new job, the period between switching from one job to another. Frictional unemployment is caused by:

Ø  Occupational immobility of labour: Workers need more time to switch between jobs because they don’t have new skills to offer new employers. Lack of training courses, for example, makes the search period longer. Along with that, the longer the search period, the less employable the worker gets because they are losing their employability skills (work ethics, behaviour…).

Ø  Furthermore, new employment practices such as laws on equality (race, gender, sexual orientation...) can prevent perfectly capable workers from finding a job. This is one case against government intervention in the economy.

Ø  Geographical immobility of labour: The difficulty of moving to another location to find a new job. For example, the North South divide in the UK means house prices are too high in the South where more jobs may be available. Other reasons that cause difficulties are family ties and attitudes towards moving to new and unknown locations.

Ø  Search theory of unemployment: Those who are unemployed will continue to look for the ‘right’ job, comparing their old job with the other jobs available, for example, pay, travelling distance….etc. Because of this, workers may reject job offers, leading to a longer period of unemployment.

·   Structural unemployment means that workers lose their jobs due to changes in the structure of the economy. For example, the UK’s economy moved from an industrial one in the early 1900s to one based on providing financial services now. This led to the loss of jobs in the manufacturing sector (read this article: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/16/why-britain-doesnt-make-things-manufacturing?newsfeed=true).

·   Seasonal unemployment occurs because of changes in the weather. When the UK’s climate changes, it affects the agricultural and tourism industries, leading to job losses in the winter.

·   Cyclical unemployment is caused by deficient aggregate demand. Also known as Keynesian unemployment or demand deficient unemployment, the diagram below displays a fall in  AD_L after a fall in AD. This causes employment to drop from E_FE to E₂. See a more detailed explanation as posted on 3rd October.

·   Real wage/classical unemployment is caused by wage stickiness. Collective bargaining by trade unions (see here) causes wages to remain high, causing unemployment.

Ø  The diagram shows that point X is the equilibrium point. The real wage rate is W_FE and employment is E_FE. When trade unions cause the real wage rate to rise, wages become W₁. This causes an excess supply of labour because at W₁, E₁ workers are willing and able to work at this wage rate. However, demand for labour is only E₂, more workers are willing to work than firms wish to hire, thus creating unemployment equal to E₁ – E₂. W₁ is known as the disequilibrium wage rate.

Ø  Free market economists believe that labour market competitiveness would drive down wage levels in time, however trade unions cause wage rigidity preventing it from going back to equilibrium.

It is important to note that unemployment is a waste of human capital. The disadvantages of unemployment are shown in the table below.

One positive of unemployment that classical economists believe is that it brings a downward pressure on inflation. But that’s up to you to decide whether you agree and be sure to write your opinion in the exam. See tomorrow’s post on government policies aimed at reducing unemployment.