Savings or Consumption?

I came across this great video about savings and consumption today. This video highlights the importance of savings in the economy, despite the common conception that consumption may be a more important component of the economy. I was told in school that consumption was roughly 70% of the economy. Indeed, in Keynes' view, increasing consumption will increase growth via higher spending. Remember that AD = C + I + G + (X-I), where AD = aggregate demand, C = consumption, I = investment, G = government spending, X = exports, I = imports. If consumption increases, the left hand side of the equation, AD, increases. An increase in AD will increase economic growth, so the argument goes. 

But this 3 minute video actually argues the opposite. Savings are more important for the economy because it allows investment to grow and this helps increase production. In exams, the examiners are looking for a balanced argument. These alternative views are perfect to help you gain extra marks. 

China - Case Study II

China's E-Commerce Market

Following on from the Chinese Case Study I post, these notes explain how China is moving in a positive direction to achieve three of its future growth targets (increase innovation, increase the global presence of Chinese companies and increase growth coming from domestic consumption).

By 2020 China’s e-commerce market is forecast to be bigger than the existing markets in America, Britain, Japan, Germany and France combined (from The Economist)

Alibaba

Innovation:

• Alibaba is a business to business e-commerce company that sells Chinese goods to overseas suppliers.
• The company understands the spending habits of Chinese consumers
• Alifinance is microlender to small firms (planning on expanding to normal customers too)
• Insurance

Increase the global presence of Chinese companies: Alibaba is looking to become public (i.e. be listed on a stock exchange), and looking to expand to other emerging economies.

Domestic consumption: ‘Bamboo Capitalism’ is the term used to describe the efficiency of private firms opposed to Chinese state-owned enterprises. Growth in private sector firms drives domestic consumption.

Bottom line: E-commerce is driving future growth in China.

Challenges

• China’s companies are viewed with suspicion abroad
• Chinese firms are accused of supporting human rights abuses for access to resources (read this Economist article about China in Africa) 

China - Case Study I

Key Questions:

·         Is growth increasing incomes on the average Chinese?

·         Is growth lifting people out of poverty?

·         Is minimum wage industrialisation the best way to achieve growth?

QUALITY of growth matters

·         Average income for a Chinese worker is (USD)$8000

·         By 2020, it is estimated that average Chinese wages would have risen to (US) $14,000. This level is considered to be the upper income level that moved countries such as Singapore, South Korea, Greece and Portugal, to ‘rich’ country stats - the level that moved these countries past the boundary

Five year plan

·         China’s growth has been, on average, 9.6% over the past 30 years

·         The five year plan is the government’s 12th five-year plan used to set the future growth agenda for China

·         Renewed in 2011, the priorities for this plan are sustainable growth, industrial upgrading and the promotion of domestic consumption

·         Criticism: there is no implementation plan

See kpmg report:

·         Half of china’s growth comes from adding capital. Bear in mind that growth quality is now becoming the most important thing to think about rather than growth quantity

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is measured by innovation, allocative efficiency (re-allocation of factors, e.g. rural to urban, state owned to private) and human capital. TFP is the contribution of all factors of production to growth. When TFP increases, the growth rate increases. This means that one or more of the factors of production has been changed.

Innovation - micro level data shows that ⅔ technology comes from imitation, most developing countries imitate first to gain enough wealth to then invest it into R&D for new product development. Imitation leads to innovation - creating an increase in growth.

Human capital - China’s investment in human capital is geographical unevenly distributed. Rural parts of China are under-invested in. If China invests in human capital all round, it has a better chance competing with other economies. Human capital is beneficial because:

·         Skill levels increase. E.g. they will be more qualified to perform tasks and will do so quicker

·         Creates a flexible economy - workers have a greater capacity to adapt to changes in the economy, i.e. seize new opportunities for wealth creation

·         Increases occupational mobility of labour and geographical mobility of labour as because of the previous point

·         High levels of education can increase a worker’s ability to use foreign technology, their ability to absorb new information and acquire technical skills

Middle Income Trap

China needs to avoid the middle income trap. The middle income trap is the trap that developing countries fall into when trying to make their transition from a developing country to a developed country. They are not low income by definition, i.e. they experience high growth rates and make money, but they are not high income countries because they do not have technological advantages. China’s wages are starting to increase, as shown here, demonstrating that what was once the most popular destination for cheap manufacturing, is now losing to countries such as Bangladesh and Singapore.

Key points:

·         Wages are increasing

·         Poverty is slowing decreasing

·         Innovation is creeping up

·         Chinese firms are expanding globally

·         Without the prospect for cheap labour, firms will be deterred from investing in China

·         Only urban members of the workforce are educated, also potentially deterring firms

·         The Chinese economy is still imitating

These points suggest that China is heading for the middle income trap, a limbo between the rich and poor, unable to progress. There are criticisms of the middle income trap, read the Economist article here to gain other perspectives, which will help you build your argument in your exam. Remember that providing alternative views are brownie points. Read the sources at the bottom as well.

The Future

·         Focus on overcoming the middle income trap

·         Increase own market reliance, e.g. US consumers are increasingly buying domestically produced goods

·         Increase domestic demand by lowering exports. E.g. exports are only a fraction in the US - China needs to get to that

·         Privatise. State owned companies are not as productive. They distort the allocation of lending and bank credit. State owned enterprises account for 30% industrial output and ¼ of urban jobs

·         Increase innovation

·         Increase opening - more Chinese firms should go global.

o        We have seen Chinese investment in African natural resources, which is a start. They are building infrastructure in poor African countries and providing jobs (however a negative is that they are competing with local firms and undercutting them, making it difficult for locals to make a living)

o        China should focus on moving up the value chain by producing things that is most competitive

o        The government should push to create Chinese multinationals

o        At the moment, Europe in particular can benefit from the additional investment that Chinese firms can offer

·         Services are important - increase job creation, create a high skilled labour force and help China rebalance

·         Raise consumption as a share of GDP, not rising it in absolute terms

·         Restructure the economy: more services, quality of growth needs to increase

·         Productivity and innovation: compete to produce the best products in the world. Join the ranks of rich countries, e.g. Samsung (South Korea) competing with Apple (US)

·         Political reforms are required to sustain a prosperous middle class

A Video on The Minimum Wage

Building up a strong argument is essential for getting good grades. When evaluating the minimum wage, its not good enough just to write that it creates unemployment. What are the other effects?

Here is a video describing the effects of a minimum wage. Sure it is slightly biased (free marketeers), but that's why their argument against it is really good.

Notes on the labour market, trade unions and the minimum wage can be found here!

Fiscal Policy video

Paj Holden's video on fiscal policy is a great material for revision or learning fiscal policy from scratch.

Key points/summary of topics explained

Fiscal policy - manipulating government spending and taxation levels in order to manage the level of AD in the economy.

Definition of AD (C+I+G+X-M)

In a weak economy (low AD), the government might consider loosening fiscal policy - lower taxes (boost consumption) and increasing government spending. Disadvantage of loose fiscal policy, if spending becomes too high, deficits rise, creating problems, such as the Eurozone crisis.

Explains the Euro crisis

Business cycle and output gaps

Note: The AD/AS diagram he uses shows the Keynesian LRAS (notes to come!)

Case Study: Greece

---> GDP growth of -6.6%

---> Budget deficit (2009) was 15% of GDP. In 2010, it was 11% of GDP and in 2011 it was 8% as a result of increased taxes and lower government spending (austerity measures). However the Greek government is still spending 8% more than revenues gained from taxation. There is also interest gained from the additional spending, demonstrating the importance of their fiscal constraints.


Quantitative Easing

Discretionary Fiscal Policy

Using fiscal policy in response to economic conditions, e.g. a recession, to induce changes in the economy. Some economists say that discretionary fiscal policy can be a good way to reduce the volatility of business cycles. For example if economic growth is slowing and forecasters predict that a down turn/recession may occur by the next year, expansionary fiscal policy may be used to reduce the impact. However, forecasters' predictions do not always come true, thus giving the case against using discretionary. Also, effects of fiscal policy do not show immediately due to the time lag, thus there is danger of in fact worsening the economic situation than improving it.

Latest figures

A good website to use to find out the latest growth, inflation, interest, exchange and unemployment rates is http://tradingeconomics.com/. You can spend a while looking at the most recent data and pick out patterns and make comparisons.

Interesting facts to note and use:

Japan's interest rate is 0%

The Euro area has the highest unemployment rate

China's inflation rate is 4.2% while India's is over 9%!

Ireland has the highest budget deficit, 31.30% of GDP. Greece, the USA, UK, Portugal and Spain follow soon after.

India's GDP was 6.9% in the third quarter of 2011, compare that to China's 2.3%

Growth in 2012

This chart here shows the predictions for growth worldwide along with the reasons for it. Read it to learn more case study examples and improve your knowledge of the world economy, ready for 2012!

Top 10 Posts This Year

Today is a very special day, not just because it is New Year's Eve eve, but because it is the blog's five month anniversary with my first post being on purchasing power parity! Below I have compiled a list of the top 10 posts so far. If these are popular, I am assuming they have been most helpful to you guys, so please have a look at all 10, and good luck with your revision.

10. Trade Unions posted on 16th November

9. Oligopoly Case Study  posted on 16th October. Although it was a few months ago, the case study can still be used as an example.

8. Word of the Day: Economic Growth on a PPF posted on 3rd August

7. Notes on Supply Side Economics and Crowding Out posted on 16th October

6. Word of the Day: Backward Bending Supply Curve  posted on 25th August

5. Negative Externalities posted on 16th September

4. Monopoly posted on 23rd August

3. Word of the Day: Elasticity posted on 13th August

2. Perfect Competition Long Run Equilibrium posted on 11th August

1. Perfect Competition Short Run Equilibrium posted on 10th August

It seems perfect competition is the most popular, not surprising because even I had difficulties with this one.

Keep looking out for more revision notes to come soon!

The World Tonight on Boxing Day!

Merry Christmas to everyone!!! Hope that you all got what you wished for, but also that you've have been busy revising for January exams!

The World Tonight had a special report on the global economy and the free market. Listen here from 7 minutes  30 seconds. Listen out for case studies and recent news to back up your arguments in the exam.

BBC Radio 4 - The World Tonight

'The World Tonight', a BBC Radio 4 programme, yesterday, touched on the UK economy, discussing the following:

• Slowing growth and rising unemployment
• The importance of moving the economy from services to manufacturing
• Case Study: Starbucks: increasing training opportunities, education in management, job creation and career pathing 
• Vicious circle: 
• Manufacturing declines à Training and development of people to go into this sector declines à Manufacturing declines further
• Euro sovereign debt crisis
• The look into the future in 2012

Listen from 0:11:40 to 0:28:00 for the programme on 20/12/11 on this link: BBC R4 The World Tonight

What does the UK's economic growth tell us about the impact of cuts?

This blog was created to help you find resources for your exams, as well as providing specific exam revision notes, so below is the link to an article that talks about government cuts and their impacts on society.

http://www.rsablogs.org.uk/2011/adam-lent/growth-data-impact-cuts/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rsaprojects+%28RSA+blogs%29

 
Make notes about what you read, and notice that the view of Adam Lent conveys that government cuts have not yet stifled growth.

Speculation

·     One of the factors that affect economic growth (see here), speculation is when the buying and selling activities of firms and individuals (known as speculators) affects the price of goods and commodities around the world.

·     Speculation can also influence the price of world currencies.

·     Before the crisis in 2007, the value of the pound rose significantly because interest rates were high prompting speculators to buy the pound because rewards for saving were greater.

·     Speculation can affect economic growth because of something known as the ‘speculative bubble’, relating to asset prices. Click on this link here for a more detailed analysis. Rapid growth of assets prices such as housing (e.g. 2007), commodities (gold, silver..) and shares/bonds can lead to a bubble because people speculate that the price will continue to rise so they buy more of these assets. When the price is above the real value of the asset, people will start to sell and the bubble bursts, leading to a collapses in business and consumer confidence and ultimately a recession.

Autumn Statement

Following the Chancellor's Autumn Statement yesterday, I found this excellent summary available on the BBC for you guys to read. It explains the key points and breaks down what he discussed into sections of the economy. Click here to view it.

There are also many pages on the FT from yesterday's statement. There are videos and interactive graphics so do look at them. The FT would have a more critical analysis of the issue and critique some of the policies and schemes introduced so read them to develop a better evaluation for the exam. Click here for it.

The Andrew Marr Show

This morning the Chancellor, George Osborne and the shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, were on The Andrew Carr show talking about the economy and the government's fiscal position. The Chancellor outlines the new schemes that are being introduced to help small medium sized businesses and Britain's position in the Eurozone crisis.

Here is the link for BBC iplayer to watch it:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01803z5

Next week Nick Clegg is on the show, so for those of you who are still interested in what he has to say, watch the show next week as well. Alternatively, I will post up the iplayer link next week as well.

BBC programme called 'Your Money and How They Spend It'

There is a really good programme by the BBC's political editor, Nick Robinson. It concerns itself with the fiscal policy of the UK in the past and the future. It describes the government's decisions in the allocation of resources and how the government spends our money. The programme is on the link here and is broadcast every Wednesday at 9pm on BBC2.  The issues discussed include:

• Politics
• UK's budget
• Ageing population
• Winter fuel allowance
• Pensions
• NHS
• Financial crisis 2008
• Tuition fees
• Inequality
• Infrastructure spending

Please watch it, there are case studies that you can use in your exam and some statistics that, if you learn, will make your exam answers different than others. It is also useful to know about previous governments' fiscal policies. The extra knowledge that you will receive will definitely be beneficial.

Case Study for Supply Side Economy

A new government scheme has been launched today to tackle our sluggish economic growth. 'Business Link' (for more information and research, visit their website) has started a new scheme called 'My New Business' to give advice to potential entrepreneurs. Could this be a potential supply side policy aimed at shifting our LRAS curve rightward?

Read this short article which explains the potential benefits the scheme will bring to our economy. Click here.

To find out more about supply side policies and supply side economics, see my notes posted here!

The New Global Economics

On Monday 14th November, one of a two part programme will be on at 8:00pm about the future of the global economy. The show will be broadcast by Martin Wolf, the chief economics commentator of the FT, where he'll discuss the short and long run effects and how things will be changing in the world.

Please do listen to it, if you can't then listen on iplayer when convenient for you, because this programme will give you valuable analysis that you can use in your exam and possible case studies...etc. To find out more about the programme, click here.

The Credit Crunch

For those of you who are unsure what the 'credit crunch' is, and how it started, watch this simplified, but concise video that explains it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGxmgwUWNr0&feature=related

To summarise, occurring in 2008, the credit crunch was the result of over lending to people who are high risk and thus the inability of debtors to pay back their loans. In a simplified version, banks make money through a process called credit creation, lending more than is initially deposited. They know that people will deposit money back into the bank that they borrowed from and so can afford to lend more than they have (given a low liquidity ratio: the proportion of their assets - savers' money - that they keep).

UK Growth Figures

Today it emerged that the UK economy has grown 0.5% in the third quarter of this year. Economists predicted a 0.4% growth rate, beating expectations. My verdict: at least it's not negative growth!

These two articles here and here, are good readings explaining the recent ONS figures.